ZOMG - Its Snowing Outside

Was plugging around the forum and blog land, decided to step outside for a smoke, and walla, those rain drops be WHITE.

Nothing stickable (is that a word?), but just a reminder that its STILL FRIGGIN COLD in the Pacific Northwest.

Another reminder, for a wayward computer traveler whose tired, that now is a good time to stay inside, watch some of those sci-fi and poker shows (excellent training btw), taking up space on the ole DVR.

Will return to Poker and Blogging Tomorrow.

Turbo Tourney - Calculating Your Race Pre Flop

The importance of keeping your stack in mind, the size of your opponents stacks, AND your pre flop odds for calling a race, should ALWAYS be the forefront in a Turbo Tourney. It is best to keep in Mind the 60/40 rule as listed in Turbo Tournaments - A Discussion vs. Normal Speed and Play. If you are closer to the 40% mark, then you will want a stack at LEAST 30+BB, while your opponent has a stack of about 12BB (then you can call the all in). On the Short Stack (15BB or less)? Try to be around 50% on up for the shove. Remember, racing shouldn't be a consideration until the Later stage (blinds at 250 or more with antes).

A tool to be used for both pre flop and post tourney analysis can be found at: Texas Hold'em Odds Calculator - CardPlayer.com. As a pre-flop tool, you can plug in AK for your opponent if you are in early or middle position, or AJ for BB if in CO or BUTTON. Conversely, you can put other cards (such as possible pocket pairs), OR, if you have been keeping notes on your opponent, the possible range of cards he has been playing.

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For demonstration purposes, as a Post Flop and analysis tool, I will run some observed hands, with 2 thrown in from my own play. All races should be run in Late Stage (antes), and In the Money Phase (unless Short Stack of less than 10BB, and are Nearing the Money Phase or at Final Table).

• 22 vs AKo
  52% vs 48%, chip stacks equal, short stack, or 22 should have 30+ BB stack vs a 10+ BB Stack. For equal stack size, you should actually muck. If on the short stack, preferably 12BB or less.

• 33 vs ATo
  Another 52% vs 48%, see above for profitability.

• 22 mid vs ATs late
  49% vs. 51%, virtual tie. Really should only be played with 22 having 30+ BB stack vs a 10+ BB Stack.

• QJoBB vs A9sUTG vs KK (button)
  Three way pot here: A9s comes in at 30%, KK is at 58%, while QJo is a measly 12% (and should get the heck out of dodge in a reraised pot). Of course, KK wins. Without QJo in there, A9s is only a 32% favorite vs. KK at 68%. Advice, drop A9s from your arsenal UTG. If playing from late position, and have 30+ BB, only call the raise if the opponent has 10+ BB or less. Otherwise, consider folding - especially if in multiway pot

• JJ mid vs K6s late
  68% vs. 32%. This race should not be run. In late position, CO or BU, play the K6s for a raise and call only if - a. no one has entered pot before you, and b. you have 30+BB, and the others behind you have less than 15+ BB.

• KJo mid vs JJ sb
  This hand knocked me out of a final table. Blinds were at 4k, my stack was around 32k, and Opponent was just above 100k.
  32% vs. My 68%. Of course, he should not have called. I believed that since this took about a third of his stack, he would not call. But at these limits, expect the unexpected.

• A8o button vs. T9o BB
  56% vs. 44%. Should only make this play as steal. If in the Nearing the Money phase, put in a raise, and drop if don't hit the flop (and opponent makes some sort of move at the pot). Again, the profitable call is 30+BB vs. 12BB.

• AJs sb, vs AQo, UTG
  Here, AJs ended up winning. AJs was the short stack. Pre-flop, AJs is 28% vs. AQo 67% (not 72%, because UTG). However, opponent was well stacked, and made the right call. For the most part, AQo UTG should not be called in multiway pots, and only when you have 40+BB vs 15BB or lower.

• 99 mid vs AQs, sb
  52% vs. 48%, See above for close race situations.

• JTo vs J8s
  Here, we had a shorter stack going all in with J8s. Odds for J8s are 27.5% vs. JTo 62.5%. Not a good race (considering your opponents possible range of hand). If you can make at least 6 hands, and are on the short stack, wait for some better cards to race. "But it was suited" doesn't work here.

Click On Above Pics to Enlarge

Turbo Tourney Statistics, Why Keep Track, Note Improvement

Edit, Important: there was a mistake in my Memory Banks (heehee). I did NOT lose the One Hand Wonder Tourney due to QQ on first hand, but Actually AQo, so I will need to re-edit documents to reflect this hand. It wasn't till I pulled up the Hand History for THIS POST, that I realized the mistake).


I have blogged statistics after most tourney games for the Stars challenge in many posts. There are various reasons for this. For personal blogging, lets me and others note that the number of hands played can tell whether you are on tilt or not. Also, there will be a tendency and need to play more hands (depending on chip stack and Turbo Tourney level), than in regular tourneys.

However, the next reason is to see the BIG difference in finish positions pre and post application of the Turbo Tournament Strategy (mine, not another one that is published). Before, for three tourneys, I thought I was starting to be card dead. During the next four tourneys played after I developed a strategy, the results were significantly improved.

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The six tourneys played PRIOR to writing the strategy (following a normal speed low buy in strategy), INCLUDING personal notes (the first 3 tourneys were played on different day):

1. First Game: First hand in BB, 98 suited resisted the urge to go all in, even though would have won. Flop came 10sQc2s, with 7s on the river. Oh well. Some dope on table running all time clocks off. 5th hand, went all in with AKs, 2 callers with 55 and 44, lost. 7th hand, in BB and 20 chips, won with Q8 off. 8th hand in SB, went all in with AJo, lost to 88.
   
   Finished in 244th place.
   
   During current Hold'em session you were dealt 8 hands and saw flop:
   - 2 out of 2 times while in big blind (100%)
   - 1 out of 1 times while in small blind (100%)
   - 1 out of 5 times in other positions (20%)
   - a total of 4 out of 8 (50%)
   Pots won at showdown - 1 of 3 (33%)



2. Second Game, started in BB again. First round won 1, but lost with open ender (some chips, not out yet). On 16th hand, went all in with QQ (blinds at 100, utg1), got called by BB with QJ suited, he won with straight on turn. Had player keep disconnecting, slowing game down (think they did it on purpose), but he went out when I did. He actually had AA in small blind. Gonna tighten up next gaame, but if I start in the BB again, there is something up with the app here.
   
   Finished in 162nd Place.
   
   During current Hold'em session you were dealt 16 hands and saw flop:
   - 2 out of 2 times while in big blind (100%)
   - 0 out of 2 times while in small blind (0%)
   - 4 out of 12 times in other positions (33%)
   - a total of 6 out of 16 (37%)
   Pots won at showdown - 2 of 4 (50%)
   Pots won without showdown - 0



3. Third tourney, got lucky on split first hand, Went from first to bust. Tired. 77 got me again, though best on flop. Per my usual, will need to play a few more games until cash. Time to break for lunch, meds, etc.
   
   Finished in 52nd.
   
   During current Hold'em session you were dealt 51 hands and saw flop:
   - 2 out of 6 times while in big blind (33%)
   - 2 out of 5 times while in small blind (40%)
   - 15 out of 40 times in other positions (37%)
   - a total of 19 out of 51 (37%)
   Pots won at showdown - 5 of 9 (55%)
   Pots won without showdown - 3



4. Fourth Game: Moved to other tables a lot. Caught a couple of good hands, built up to 8k, shouldn't have cbet the AK. Next time, simply 3 bet, not five bet, or simply fold in early position.
   
   Finished in 94th.
   
   During current Hold'em session you were dealt 26 hands and saw flop:
   - 4 out of 5 times while in big blind (80%)
   - 0 out of 3 times while in small blind (0%)
   - 3 out of 18 times in other positions (16%)
   - a total of 7 out of 26 (26%)
   Pots won at showdown - 3 of 6 (50%)
   Pots won without showdown - 0



5. Fifth Game: Up to 4K, got a little lucky, then switched to table with higher stacks. Never got any higher, bad stats, levels at 250. Kick the limp with K3 suited. First game my AA lost to 55, with 5 on turn.
   
   Finished 88th.
   
   During current Hold'em session you were dealt 40 hands and saw flop:
   - 3 out of 5 times while in big blind (60%)
   - 4 out of 5 times while in small blind (80%)
   - 9 out of 30 times in other positions (30%)
   - a total of 16 out of 40 (40%)
   Pots won at showdown - 4 of 7 (57%)
   Pots won without showdown - 1



6. Sixth game: Card dead. Must be on that list to lose. Finished in 146th place.
   
   Stats of Card Dead Player:
   
   During current Hold'em session you were dealt 20 hands and saw flop:
   - 1 out of 2 times while in big blind (50%)
   - 1 out of 2 times while in small blind (50%)
   - 2 out of 16 times in other positions (12%)
   - a total of 4 out of 20 (20%)
   Pots won at showdown - 0 of 3 (0%)
   Pots won without showdown - 0

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Improvement, the Statistics AFTER application of the Turbo Strategy (note, after each game, tweaked the strategy a little bit more):

1. Tournament 20: Final hand (he had bigger stack than I, he made the appropriate call). Lost 99 against AJ suited. 99 is 52.7 against AJs, 46.83% (so this WAS a decent race hand). However, next hand, he flopped the nuts, and won again with 72 spades, made full house.
   
   Finished 54th (I was stacked to get to the cash, made this play to bust out).
   
   During current Hold'em session you were dealt 61 hands and saw flop:
   - 4 out of 7 times while in big blind (57%)
   - 4 out of 8 times while in small blind (50%)
   - 7 out of 46 times in other positions (15%)
   - a total of 15 out of 61 (24%)
   Pots won at showdown - 4 of 6 (66%)
   Pots won without showdown - 4
   
   
2. 21 tourney: Went all in with AQo my First Hand (my bad).
   
   Finished 343rd
   
   During current Hold'em session you were dealt 1 hands and saw flop:
   - 0 out of 0 times while in big blind (0%)
   - 0 out of 0 times while in small blind (0%)
   - 1 out of 1 times in other positions (100%)
   - a total of 1 out of 1 (100%)
   Pots won at showdown - 0 of 1 (0%)
   Pots won without showdown - 0
   
   
3. 22nd tourney, my own donk move (hand study next few posts). Again, I had plenty to cash:
   
   Finished 41st
   
   During current Hold'em session you were dealt 67 hands and saw flop:
   - 4 out of 9 times while in big blind (44%)
   - 1 out of 8 times while in small blind (12%)
   - 10 out of 50 times in other positions (20%)
   - a total of 15 out of 67 (22%)
   Pots won at showdown - 5 of 7 (71%)
   Pots won without showdown - 0
   
   
4. 23rd tourney (Note, made Final Table, ONLY dealt 95 hands):
   
   Finished 9th
   
   During current Hold'em session you were dealt 95 hands and saw flop:
   - 9 out of 13 times while in big blind (69%)
   - 3 out of 12 times while in small blind (25%)
   - 11 out of 70 times in other positions (15%)
   - a total of 23 out of 95 (24%)
   Pots won at showdown - 8 of 12 (66%)
   Pots won without showdown - 12

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Now, for an examination of the statistics. The FIRST important statistic to note is how many hands you are dealt. To consistently win, you will need to make the best decisions with the cards you are dealt, in order to move up the Food Chain. In my pre-turbo strategy, tended to blame a lot of this on slow play. I later learned more patience, and to adjust to slow play as needed. In a normal speed tourney, your hand count will be about DOUBLE the 95 that made the final. In these tourneys, to cash, need to wait out about 70+ hands or so.

Second Most important statistic: saw flop x out of xx times in other positions. While you can't help if its folded around to you in the blinds, or your small blind hand is good enough to call a raise, the hands you call with OUT OF THE BLINDS you can control. Pre-Turbo Strategy, average Out Of Blind Calls (from above), around 26% (counting a little over because of earlier tourneys with total around 43%). Post-Turbo strategy, average Out of Blind Calls, 17% (not counting the 100% for the first hand all in, not a typical result. There WILL be strong starting hands, such as AA, for the first hand, that you will shove, and lose - I've seen it. Now, Aqo is not the best shove first hand, and I definitely should have know better). So, post-turbo strategy, your average SHOULD be around 15% to 20% for calls not in the blinds (most pros play around the 20% level, unless they go on tilt - WHICH I have observed).

Third Statistic to Examine: Total percentage of calls. Again, if you are looking at 40% or more, you are probably playing too many hands. My pre-turbo strategy, my total call percentage was 30%. Post-Turbo strategy (again discounting the one hand wonder), is about 23%. This is a statistic common across most of my Near the Bubble, In the Money, and Final Table finishes. What you REALLY WANT here, is between 22% and 24% (25% at the most), on a consistent basis. Good preflop selection in the early stages, with appropriate moves due to chip stack sizes in the middle stages, will keep this percentage at an average level.

Last statistic we want to look at is Finish Position. We'll again do an average, but in the money is more important. Pre-turbo strategy, averaging around the 131st mark (which is still the top 50%, but top 50% isn't in the money). Post-turbo strategy, average finish is 35 (which IS in the money). Now, to consistently play tourneys, and each one finish that close, I don't feel is a coincidence. IF I had not made some donk moves (trying to get that chip stack so could win, INSTEAD of being satisfied with making the money, and THEN making the moves), I would have cashed in ALL the tourneys except for the One Hand Blunder game.

After doing some more tweaking for Near the Bubble and In the Money plays, I believe I will have a more sound strategy to get in the money (or at least finish in less the 100 position) a larger percentage of the time. And this means time will be better spent playing the tournaments.

All Comments welcome (including dissensions).