Monday, March 15, 2010

Reader Challenge 1 - Turbo Tourneys - Your Mission

Now, it is time for the Challenge - GAME ON!!

Fellow bloggers and casual visitors, come one and all, join me (as I would ask nothing of someone else that I wouldn't do myself). Your Mission - should you choose to accept it - is to play Turbo SNG MTT tourneys, perfecting your play, limiting your losses, accepting loss as part of the equation, and make a profit.

Reread the following posts to refresh your brain (note, these pop up in separate window, tab):

The Challenge, Step by Step:

  1. With your own hand histories in mind, develop a strategy to play turbos, focusing on the pre flop focus of this game. Develop a strategy for what YOU believe are the different stages of the tournament. It doesn't have to be fancy, I have mine typed up in a Notepad text file.

  2. Play 12 Turbo Tourneys at or below 2% of your bankroll. I have $6. That means I'm limited to the 10 cent Turbos.
    Play Turbos listed in the Sit N Go Multi Table Tab. A fixed number of players lessens the variance and time, as opposed to large fields of opponents in scheduled tournaments.
    Play Turbos with 90 or more players (the practice of nearing the bubble can be more aptly applied here).
    Practice your Strategy and Note Taking while playing.

  3. If you lose 3 tourneys in a row. STOP. Take a break, analyze some play, observe the tourney you were just knocked out of (stalk the guy who knocked you out), lunch, laundry, whatever. Pay attention to your statistics. If total hands called is above 25% (and you get knocked out), STOP. Tweak your tournaments strategy, and try again.

  4. Out of 12 Turbo tourneys, finish 8 or more in the top 50% (180 for 360 man, 45 for 90 man, etc.) This enables patience, and shows any leaks in your tournament strategy.

  5. Out of the 12 turbo tourneys, finish 6 or more in the top 15% (54 or better in 360 man, 14 or better in 90 man). This gets you near the bubble, and if you get knocked out, or your short stack race explodes, you can tweak the tourney strategy some more.

  6. Out of the 12 turbo tourneys, finish in the money 4 or more times. You've played 8, you're not multi tabling beyond 2 or 3 at a time, you've followed the steps, you SHOULD be statistically in the Money 33% of the time. Running races of 60/40, it would be better at 40% in the money, however, losing streaks do happen. So lets look at cashing 33% of the time.

  7. Out of the 12 turbo tourneys, make the Final Table 2 or more times. This is where the money is at, this should be your goal. We're looking at 17% final. Even if you finish 9th twice, that is 1.80 at the 10 cent SNGs. If you cash and final at this rate, you will be making a profit.

There will be more challenges later, but this should do for now. Feel free to post your results. Have fun, and good luck on the Felt.

Pre-Flop Hole Cards Again, Turbo Tournaments, Personal Statistics

In this previous post, I mentioned shoving from the small blind with 99, because KK decided to limp in UTG+1 (sometimes a good move, but turned out disastrous in the play). So using Holdem Manager and my last 23 tourneys, plus the Still Being Tweaked Turbo Tournament Strategy, I will discuss certain preferred Hole Cards, how often I have won with them, and how they are best played.

Now that I've played more tourneys, my percentage of HM's top cards has increased. Raised from the initial 2.4% to 3.3% are AA, KK, QQ and AK. Let's take a look at the win/loss record here.

  • AA - 6 times. Lost with them only once, Loss was in CO position, 2+ limpers in front, and of course, I shoved. BB50. I also was second chip leader at 4450. However, big blind called all in with 55, made set on turn. Only lost 1220 chips. I tend to get AA most in Middle Position, and shoving doesn't always produce folds (as you can see). Win Rate: 5/6 hands - 83%.

  • KK - 5 hands, lost once. Still early stage 20bb, IN BB, shoved, got called by AQs and T9s (what?), and A flops. However, an 80% success rate falls within the 60/40 rule I'm looking for. I recommend shove regardless of position, just because IT IS a Turbo. But, if you feel better with a substantial raise in Early pos to see a flop, that can work also.

  • QQ - I have some better success with Ax. Win rate is 57.1%. Lost one with preflop all in from UTG, there was AA on board in late position, we all lost to the chip leader with QJ suited. BB 100, should have just raised. Best to fold QQ's when 2 re raises (AA did go all in, and I'm sure BB would have called). QQ is still best from mid to late position. The EV pre flop is 50%, so one needs to keep this in mind. Definitely worth the shove when have the stack. Lost again against KK. I did fold QQ when 20bb, during an all in frenzy (and A9 won. A2 off, the chip leader, received a side pot).

  • AKs - 75% win rate, dealt 3 times, lost once, won twice. All times were in Early position.

  • AKo - 9 hands dealt, 5 won, 4 lost (have a tendency to play all). I folded one hand, that I would have won with. Wanted to conserve chips, in BB. Lesson learned, other AK raised to 500, 2 other callers before the BB, not at level to race yet, probably should fold AKo in multi-raised pot. another rerun shows that at the Middle Stage, blinds 100 to 200, shoving with AK, and no K nor A on flop, is a mistake. However, once the antes hit, if on the button, defintely worth a big raise. Be careful if the BB has more chips than you, because you could end up with a race that you lose.

I want to discuss some hands won that are out of the ordinary (they have a higher percentage rate).

  • Dealt ATs once, blinds were 1000, chip stack 6000, middle position with one limper, made the shove (this is during the in the money phase). Flopped T2T to win the pot.

  • Dealt KTs once, on Button, made raise, blinds 4k, won the pot with a continuation bet.

  • 100% win rate with AJs, dealt twice, once in BB, called raise, won pot, and once in early pos, 7 handed, blinds 1k, went all in for 3.5k+, uncalled.
  • J5s in BB, made a move, and made the flush.

  • JJ and TT the same. Win rate of 75% out of 4 hands. All wins BB, CO, and BTN (one early pos win when blinds were big). Most wins were simply position raises, with appropriate bet when checked to me. 87s also has win rate of 75% out of 4 hands.

Now, on to Pockets:

  • 88 has win rate of 66.7%, while 99 has win rate of 60%. 88 plays best on button and SB. 99 plays best from middle to SB. Don't shove unless you are on the short stack.

  • 77 is dismal, apparently, I've played every one, regardless of position. Should only be played in the later stage, in the money stage, and part of final table. Only played 66 once, and ended up winning (folded all others).

There are many other hands I could go over, but you get the gist. You will also get a feel for how many times you get certain cards in a sample size of 23 tourneys. Feel free to analyze your own play.

Sunday, March 14, 2010


This post is a more indepth analogy that was posted as a reply on Donkey Thrasher's blog. As mentioned many moons ago, everyone and their dog wants to be pro. Poker is not EASY MONEY, and there is no software out there that protects against bad beats and losing streaks. Ergo, study and analysis, plus learning to read opponents WITHOUT software, is very important to your game.

However, we all can't live and breath poker 24/7. Even if spending a great deal of time studying the game, you need time off. So yesterday, I did just that. No blogs, no forums. I did start out watching some Poker on TV (some old recordings of Poker After Dark), and then decided - NO - I need a break. So I just relaxed, and watched regular ole TV. The mind is much more fresh today then yesterday.

When you are on a LOSING STREAK, when you don't feel your optimal play, or A Game (because you've been on losing streak), JUST STOP PLAYING. When you feel like busting your computer, when you feel like the site is out to get you - JUST STOP PLAYING.

I've read a few blogs, seen a few shows, and previewed a few videos (most notably from PimpinDonks on SharkScope), and they advocate a different form, typical of the younger (20ish) crowd of new multi-tabling players. From the 2 Months 2 Million show (gee, wonder why they didn't make it?), and others, if you have lost money or want to fight off tilt, put in a MASSIVE NUMBER OF HANDS. Supposedly, this will correct the issue of Losing Streaks.

There are so many reasons why this Player Strategy is wrong, its hard to count (okay, let me try):

  1. It promotes a form of gambling. You have promoted your game from suffering through the ups and downs (hence, proper bankroll management), and elevated to a form of chasing money. Even if collecting Rakeback, wouldn't you rather build the bankroll up, than at the best being break even through rake back?

  2. Playing (or wanting to play) as a professional, or at least to supplement your income. No regular job expects you to go into LOCKDOWN MODE in order to catch up on work. 12+ hour stretches are not good for your health, your family, nor your bankroll. You need a life, and either believing you can shake off a Losing Streak through adding thousands of hands, or working through Tilt by continuing to play (which leads to more chasing), will deteriorate your life. Pros know this. The youngsters are still playing WOW, just another level.

  3. Your mental state: you need time off to break the streak. I learned this the hard way, when playing rush. Put in plenty of hands at different levels. Didn't leave when I had more than 4X my buy in, and lost it (on premium holdings by the way). Your goals should be to make money, not to put in X amount of hands. If you make your money in 2 hands, LEAVE the table (what you expect is dependent on what you want - but 2 to 4 times your buyin should be good). If you've lost 10% of your bankroll, definitely stop. Take a Mental Break. Analyze your play. Observe some tables. Whatever.

  4. What the old hands have to say about it - Phil Ivey, Chris Ferguson, Phil Gordon, etc. I find this to be true in Live play also. If you are losing, find any excuse to get up from the table. For online play, this doesn't mean opening 20 more. It means shutting the client down. Ferguson built his bankroll by buying in with 5% of his roll, and leaving when it doubled (that's right, short stacking and ratholing). Both Phil's get up if they are losing. I lost 6 online tourneys in a row, I quit playing. REAL PROS know when to hold, fold and walk away.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Need Guidance in Setting Up a Challenge/Goals?

Ran across this thread while surfing.

Very good, pick one from the list. Have several with different games (cash, SNG Single, MTT). Different bankrolls (from 2NL to 200NL and beyond). Good read. While visiting forums, why not register, and take a peak in the strategy section? Great info there also.

Build a BR 4: Graph Hard with a Vengeance For this forum, Firefox users (and maybe some others), in order to register, may need to click on post, hit the reply button, and then the registration page shows up.

Regarding my previous post, forgot to mention:

!! While I do subscribe to the service (hope they keep letting me do so after my posts in their forum, or non posts?), and strongly suggest others do too (Boku87 does), PLEASE do not subscribe simply to get their HUD. As noted in the previous post, drastic things can happen if your software is caught. AND, there is a problem with them keeping up with updates that renders the HUD useless.

Poker Education, Free Online Coaching, Brought to You By - Web Surfing

Yesterday and Today was an Internet surfing forage. Started in the Full Tilt Forums. They are having deposit, withdrawal issues, and someone noted the Regulation Authority (which gets a little confusing on the bottom of the page). So, I went to googling of the actual owners of FTP (whom are supposed to be in the US, hence the crackdown of the Feds more on FTP than the rest of the Poker sites).

This led to - indeed, Filco is located in the US. And, they seem to have switched main regulation over to the UK from Kahnawake. Which led to a forum and topic later in this post. Which led to revisiting the FTP forums, which led to finding some REALLY great Videos on YouTube (from more googling).

Now, there are many aspects to furthering your study of Poker. As one popular site said, Phil Ivey does more studying of the game (or at least he Used to), offline, than actually playing. As such, us low limit players can use ALL the edge we can get. Analyzing your own game is very good (one blogger is playing during the day, and analyzing at night). You can read this blog and other blogs (they are really helpful, and the blogs I study are listed at the bottom of the blog, under the Copyright notice), and frequent forums - such as 2+2. There is also the Full Tilt Academy, which is free to those with A full Tilt Account, and as you earn Points, more Videos and Challenges are open to you.

Others advocate books, DVDs, Online Videos, and personal Coaching (though the latter should really be reserved for those new to the scene). As to coaching and Online Videos such as those offered by Cardrunners, Stox, and Sharkscope - they are good, but self proclaimed pros are popping up all over the place (such as moi). I say, why pay for it when you can get it for free? I've also discovered, that surfing through the different sites I get my info from, I've come close to getting the same information as reading the Harrington Books (though those are still probably on my list).

Our first catch, is a channel on YouTube from Tight Poker. I haven't visited the Web Site Yet, but its STRONGLY suggested you watch all the videos. There's a segment on Huds, but his use of Holdem Manger to review stats via the Hand Replayer is very informative. All those using Holdem Manager should watch all the Videos. Those looking for basic low limit (microstackes from 2NL to 100NL) should watch all the Hand Review Videos (or just watch them all). Now, as stated before, I don't really use the Huds, but this may get me started as I climb the limits. I am, however, with "microstakes bankroll builder" on not relying so much on Huds, as direct observation of your opponent (you will notice the difference when you watch the videos, as to what the Huds can tell you, and what you can see in 50 hands of play against your opponent - his blog is good for education too, but remember, as in my blog, its still an opinion - we differ on buy in strategies and bankroll managment).

Check out tightpokerdotcom's Channel, and start from the bottom of the list (PS, the Pokerstars video has to download fully before playing).

My next find, I haven't watched many videos yet. After each video with Tight Poker, you get some related videos, and I clicked on this one to check out the channel. Looks to be good, and worth a study (I will file a later report if this is not the case).

sitngogenius's Channel (ps, also contains videos on lotto, roulette, etc). I'll collect and post more channels as I continue the Web Search.

Two forum posts Submitted for your Approval, long reads, but interesting:

Banned from FT without evidence - full disclosure. While I haven't read the entire thing, I did skip to the end for a cliff notes version (which prompted me to re read the thread). Apparently, he proved to be cheating (for those wondering about programs such as PT3 and HEM, don't be scared, they are allowed on Full Tilt, PokerStars and UB. Cake Poker-and all sites on the network- disallow the use of Huds, and they won't work).

Another Long Read (but the beginning of withdrawal issues), Full Tilt Poker Seized 25K from my account. This guy also proved to be doing some cheating with a friend, though haven't read the full scoop. For more on banned software, and how to avoid these problems, read my posts under the label Banned Software.

I have plenty of resources listed along the sidebar of this blog, and at the bottom. The serious Poker Player will do in depth research, as opposed to a newbie who complained about losing over 1k, and when asked what he did to help study/better his game, said he bought a HUD. Please judge accordingly, and read more of my blog on the matter.

Now, off to watch some videos (PS, you can also get a lot of info from watching Poker After Dark, they don't water down the play when folks keep folding or go in the tank, shows the full play for both Cash Games and Single Table SNG play).

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Reviewing Hand Histories as Part of Your Strategy

In this post, we will discuss the value of analyzing your own hand Histories, for good play as it pertains to our Turbo Tournament Strategy, and whether you/I made the right call for our Race Rules. I will only be using HHs (that's Hand Histories for those yet learning the lingo), from Tournaments Post my Initial Strategy Development.

In my previous posts, I have introduced several concepts that help with the format of Low Buy In Turbos. After creating the initial strategy, I came close to the money twice, played an all in on the first hand, and made the final table. Part of learning to improve your game, is going over the aspects of your prior games. Tools like Sharkscope Graphs, Holdem Manager Tourney Results, the Odds Calculator, and review of your own play, will prove invaluable in game improvement, and increasing profits. As you advance, you'll learn more about the right plays at the right time.

As mentioned in the Initial Article, you must not be afraid to lose. That is part of making the plays that get you to the final, and eventually more wins. Proper Bankroll Management is key, since there are adjustments you need to make for your game along the way. If you have 50 buy ins, and you are losing, AND - you keep making the same plays over and over expecting different results (relying more on the LUCK FACTOR), then your 50 buy ins won't last long. The key here is NOT to multi-table, or race with 20 games one right after another. Take the time to analyze after your Good Results and Bad Results. Then, whether you won or lost, you go to the next game with a fresh brain and outlook.

First, we'll look at Tournament #20 (finished 54th). You can review your own hand histories via an analysis program, or - since I've already done that, just go over the HHs in your folder saved from PokerStars or Full Tilt.

Reviewing the First Hand Played - I was dealt QQ. So, what was different about this tourney than the next one that I lost on the First Hand?

Poker Stars $0.10+$0.00 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players
BTN: t1500 M = 50
SB: t1500 M = 50
BB: t1500 M = 50
UTG: t1500 M = 50
UTG+1: t1500 M = 50
UTG+2: t1500 M = 50
Hero (MP1): t1500 M = 50
MP2: t1500 M = 50
CO: t1500 M = 50

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is MP1 with Q of clubs Q of hearts
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t1500 all in, 1 fold, Hero calls t1500 all in, 1 fold, CO calls t1500 all in, 3 folds

Flop: (t4530) 6 of clubs K of clubs 2 of diamonds (3 players - 3 are all in)
Turn: (t4530) 5 of hearts (3 players - 3 are all in)
River: (t4530) 4 of hearts (3 players - 3 are all in)
Final Pot: t4530
UTG+1 shows A of spades Q of diamonds (high card Ace)
Hero shows Q of clubs Q of hearts (a pair of Queens)
CO shows 8 of clubs J of spades (high card King)
Hero wins t4530

UTG+1 is Shoving first hand with AQo, as per our previous post, THIS IS NOT A GOOD shove. QQ was played from Middle Position. Middle to Late is a good Position for QQ (though, not necessarily for all your chips the first hand).

Now, lets look at the next tourney, where AQo on the first hand lost (my One Hand Blunder Game). As we are learning throughout this study, AQo in early stages, and in early position, can be a REAL BIG CHIP LEAK.

Poker Stars $0.10+$0.00 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players

BTN: t1500 M = 50
SB: t1500 M = 50
BB: t1500 M = 50
UTG: t1500 M = 50
UTG+1: t1500 M = 50
UTG+2: t1500 M = 50
MP1: t1500 M = 50
Hero (MP2): t1500 M = 50
CO: t1500 M = 50

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is MP2 with Q of diamonds A of clubs
3 folds, MP1 calls t20, Hero raises to t60, 2 folds, SB calls t50, BB raises to t1500 all in, 1 fold, Hero calls t1440 all in, 1 fold

Flop: (t3080) 9 of hearts 5 of clubs 7 of hearts (2 players - 2 are all in)
Turn: (t3080) T of spades (2 players - 2 are all in)
River: (t3080) 3 of spades (2 players - 2 are all in)
Final Pot: t3080
BB shows A of spades 7 of spades (a pair of Sevens)
Hero shows Q of diamonds A of clubs (high card Ace)
BB wins t3080

At first glance, that doesn't look like a bad call. AQ has +EV from mid to late position according to Holdem Manager (which is why I included that hand as playing part of regular poker in the Early Stages). And, our odds calculation shows AQo at that position 66.05% vs. 28.36% for A7s. However, folding would have been more optimal, because AQ for a shove plays well when the other stack is WAY shorter. And, folding would have left me still in the game. Remember, early stages are not about risking 1500 chips to win 140 chips. Knowing when to dump a hand is equally important as knowing when to shove.

Let's look at the hand that knocked me out in position 54:

Poker Stars $0.10+$0.00 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - 300/600 Blinds + 50 antes - 8 players

UTG+1: t25355 M = 19.50
MP1: t17215 M = 13.24
MP2: t5068 M = 3.90
CO: t6505 M = 5.00
BTN: t5400 M = 4.15
Hero (SB): t6425 M = 4.94
BB: t16040 M = 12.34
UTG: t10135 M = 7.80

Pre Flop: (t1300) Hero is SB with 9 of clubs 9 of diamonds
UTG calls t600, UTG+1 calls t600, 4 folds, Hero raises to t6375 all in, 1 fold, UTG calls t5775, UTG+1 calls t5775

Flop: (t20125) 7 of clubs 4 of clubs 2 of clubs (3 players - 1 is all in)
UTG bets t3710 all in, UTG+1 calls t3710
Turn: (t27545) A of diamonds (3 players - 2 are all in)
River: (t27545) 5 of diamonds (3 players - 2 are all in)
Final Pot: t27545
UTG+1 shows K of diamonds K of clubs (a pair of Kings)
Hero shows 9 of clubs 9 of diamonds (a pair of Nines)
UTG shows A of clubs J of clubs (a flush, Ace high)
UTG wins t7420
UTG wins t20125

The limp from UTG+1 with KK fooled me, however, when I shoved, he should have re shoved. But generally, With UTGs chip stack size (slightly more than mine), UTG was pretty much pot committed. I had enough orbits left, but shoving with 99 at under 10+BB is the play to make (however, might have been better in CO or BU, but KK would most definitely call). After the cards flipped over, it was definite I was the underdog. This race was mine to lose. Might it have been better to simply call the SB? To win these Turbos, you mustn't be afraid to lose. However, I don't win very many races with 99 (while others tend to be more lucky). I may make this play as a raise or shove. Did UTG make the right call? UTG should probably have shoved, but wanted a multi way pot. Maybe they didn't realize the few chips they had left would be minus EV.

Per the Odds, in this mult-way pot, AJs stood at 27%, KK at 55%, and my 99 at a measly 18%. First lesson learned, when Nearing the Bubble, probably fold/limp 99, or raise to 3XBB (1800), when 2 or more in pot. Then, could see flop. If KK had played appropriate, they should have shoved all in. Its better to win a few chips, then lose a lot (having your AA and KK cracked). I ALWAYS shove AA, and call VERY LARGE RAISES (If I don't make it myself), with KK. UTG wasn't pot committed at the time, and I MIGHT have called. I was hoping to take down the pot, but have learned that maybe a limp is more suitable for 2 or more players in the pot (when nearing the bubble). If the KK were removed, then my race would have been more appropriate, with 53% vs AJs at 47%.

The Donk play that knocked me out in 41st place:

Poker Stars $0.10+$0.00 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - 400/800 Blinds + 75 antes - 7 players

CO: t6315 M = 3.66
Hero (BTN): t18370 M = 10.65
SB: t12463 M = 7.22
BB: t74697 M = 43.30
UTG: t5752 M = 3.33
UTG+1: t15838 M = 9.18
MP: t12137 M = 7.04

Pre Flop: (t1725) Hero is BTN with A of clubs 8 of diamonds
UTG calls t800, 3 folds, Hero raises to t2400, 1 fold, BB calls t1600, UTG calls t1600

Flop: (t8125) 9 of clubs 6 of spades 6 of clubs (3 players)
BB bets t49600, UTG folds, Hero calls t15895 all in
Turn: (t39915) 3 of diamonds (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: (t39915) Q of clubs (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: t39915
Hero shows A of clubs 8 of diamonds (a pair of Sixes)
BB shows T of spades 9 of diamonds (two pair, Nines and Sixes)
BB wins t39915

While I have made this play successfully before, here - I made many mistakes. First off, very near the Bubble (cash). Second, steals are best profitable when have 30+BB vs. shorter stacks. The BB was in the mood to call with any 2 cards. Third, I'm at the phase of either shove or fold, and A8o is NOT my most favorite shoving hand, so folding would have been more appropriate. Fourth, and most importantly, BB called, and then proceeded with a REALLY BIG SHOVE on the flop. I had plenty of chips left (though would have been more if I 3 bet instead of 4 bet) if I would have folded on the flop.

This was a VERY BAD CALL on the flop. We covered the odds for this hand in an earlier post, pre flop I was 56% vs. 44%. BUT, to race, needed a pre-flop shove. The shove would have been more appropriate against shorter stacks. Lesson learned? Pay attention to stack size before even putting in a raise. Nearing the Bubble, DON'T try that aggressive play when you still have close to 30+BB left.

One final hand, one that plays excellent with the stack advantage, and can be used as a race raise, or limp in multi-way pot.

Poker Stars $0.10+$0.00 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - 150/300 Blinds + t5 antes - 9 players

SB: t9610 M = 14.24
BB: t7760 M = 11.50
UTG: t3180 M = 4.71
UTG+1: t5695 M = 8.44
UTG+2: t5535 M = 8.20
Hero (MP1): t14655 M = 21.71
MP2: t3085 M = 4.57
CO: t1090 M = 1.61
BTN: t3605 M = 5.34

Note my large stack size, over 12,000, which is 40+BB. Here is where I can make some plays to increase stack size, or force races with shorter stacks using the 40 to 60 rule.

Pre Flop: (t675) Hero is MP1 with 8 of hearts K of hearts
3 folds, Hero calls t300, 3 folds, SB calls t150, BB checks

Now, SB did make a mistake in NOT raising his hand, because I probably would have folded. However, from mid position, I have K8 suited. The smaller stacks behind me are probably going to fold (and yes, the did). Since this was mid position, I decided to limp (CO and BU call for a raise). Also, if anyone in the blinds is holding AK, I am not a 40% underdog, but for AJ I am.

Flop: (t1125) T of hearts 5 of hearts 3 of hearts (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t900, SB calls t900, BB folds

So I flop the Second Nut Flush, SWEET. However, one of them yahoo blinders JUST MIGHT be carrying the Ah, or worse, Axh. So, I make a 3 bet, around pot size, to see if I get callers, chasers. BB bowed out, SB came along.

Turn: (t2925) Q of spades (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t3600, SB calls t3600

Now, not really putting him on a large pair, I decide to bet about half his remaining chip stack. Of course, he could have the nuts, but I am beginning to think not.

River: (t10125) 7 of clubs (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t2700, SB calls t2700

So, the move (here, he made mistake by calling, should have either shoved or folded). I'm pretty sure he doesn't have the nuts, so I calculate my bet to leave him with about 2k in chips. He smooth calls again (no raise, no fold). So showdown proved rather profitable.

Final Pot: t15525
SB mucks J of diamonds J of clubs
Hero shows 8 of hearts K of hearts (a flush, King high)
Hero wins 15525

This is where you want the race cards (suggestions out when publication out). This is regarded as a race-able situation, considering the range of hands. If opponent had raised all in, I probably would have folded for 9k chips, but if the small stack opponents following me had raised all in, probably would have called. Once again, since he was a 69% favorite before the flop, a BIG RAISE, or shove with that amount of chips, would be warranted (especially with JJ and above in the BB).

Tis better to win a small pot with antes, then to lose a big pot with your big pairs.