Repeated Again - WHEN LOSING, STOP PLAYING

This post is a more indepth analogy that was posted as a reply on Donkey Thrasher's blog. As mentioned many moons ago, everyone and their dog wants to be pro. Poker is not EASY MONEY, and there is no software out there that protects against bad beats and losing streaks. Ergo, study and analysis, plus learning to read opponents WITHOUT software, is very important to your game.

However, we all can't live and breath poker 24/7. Even if spending a great deal of time studying the game, you need time off. So yesterday, I did just that. No blogs, no forums. I did start out watching some Poker on TV (some old recordings of Poker After Dark), and then decided - NO - I need a break. So I just relaxed, and watched regular ole TV. The mind is much more fresh today then yesterday.

When you are on a LOSING STREAK, when you don't feel your optimal play, or A Game (because you've been on losing streak), JUST STOP PLAYING. When you feel like busting your computer, when you feel like the site is out to get you - JUST STOP PLAYING.

I've read a few blogs, seen a few shows, and previewed a few videos (most notably from PimpinDonks on SharkScope), and they advocate a different form, typical of the younger (20ish) crowd of new multi-tabling players. From the 2 Months 2 Million show (gee, wonder why they didn't make it?), and others, if you have lost money or want to fight off tilt, put in a MASSIVE NUMBER OF HANDS. Supposedly, this will correct the issue of Losing Streaks.

There are so many reasons why this Player Strategy is wrong, its hard to count (okay, let me try):

1. It promotes a form of gambling. You have promoted your game from suffering through the ups and downs (hence, proper bankroll management), and elevated to a form of chasing money. Even if collecting Rakeback, wouldn't you rather build the bankroll up, than at the best being break even through rake back?


2. Playing (or wanting to play) as a professional, or at least to supplement your income. No regular job expects you to go into LOCKDOWN MODE in order to catch up on work. 12+ hour stretches are not good for your health, your family, nor your bankroll. You need a life, and either believing you can shake off a Losing Streak through adding thousands of hands, or working through Tilt by continuing to play (which leads to more chasing), will deteriorate your life. Pros know this. The youngsters are still playing WOW, just another level.


3. Your mental state: you need time off to break the streak. I learned this the hard way, when playing rush. Put in plenty of hands at different levels. Didn't leave when I had more than 4X my buy in, and lost it (on premium holdings by the way). Your goals should be to make money, not to put in X amount of hands. If you make your money in 2 hands, LEAVE the table (what you expect is dependent on what you want - but 2 to 4 times your buyin should be good). If you've lost 10% of your bankroll, definitely stop. Take a Mental Break. Analyze your play. Observe some tables. Whatever.


4. What the old hands have to say about it - Phil Ivey, Chris Ferguson, Phil Gordon, etc. I find this to be true in Live play also. If you are losing, find any excuse to get up from the table. For online play, this doesn't mean opening 20 more. It means shutting the client down. Ferguson built his bankroll by buying in with 5% of his roll, and leaving when it doubled (that's right, short stacking and ratholing). Both Phil's get up if they are losing. I lost 6 online tourneys in a row, I quit playing. REAL PROS know when to hold, fold and walk away.

Using Holdem Manager to Perfect the Game

I'm not quite sure WHY they show a box, does anyone order this other than via download? Didn't check whether shipping software was an option, since I downloaded trial, and then obtained license.

This is a more in depth study using some tools and reports in Holdem Manager, to fix the leaks in your game. I will be focusing on the last 19 tourneys (not counting the Freeroll), played on PokerStars. If you haven't read it yet, be sure to check out: Analyzing Your Own Play, BIG Part of Studying the Game.

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Now, we are looking at stats from the Plugging Leaks 02 – The Basics. It shows statistics for full ring and 6 max games. Since we are dealing with with 360 player .10 cent SNG's, when the 6 max game shows up, that indicates a short table approaching the money, and getting to the final (a very tough ride while in a turbo tourney).

First to check is Sufficient Pre-Flop Aggression: shows as PFR/VPIP. Should be higher than 50. Now, when moving up the money ladder, you will have to weigh your tournament strategy against your Pre-Flop Aggressive tendencies. My full table is 33.5%, while my short table (the 6 max), is 60. So look to change at raising more often, and calling less often. The more profitable player will have 70 to 89%.

Next check is Positional Awareness: Playing positionally strong poker is one of the fundamental concepts separating winners from losers. The more you play in position (being last to act on each street postflop) the more you will win playing No Limit poker. Look at how often you are raising an unopened pot from early position and compare that to how often you are raising an unopened pot from the button. This is where the Preflop Positional Awareness stat comes in and it is essentially a ratio of your PFR on the button vs PFR from early position when unopened. My Pre-Flop positional awareness for full table is 5.3. For 6 max (short handed), is na. Optimal is between 2 and 2.5. Simply tighten range in early position, and open many more hands on the button (keeping good tournament strategy in mind here).

Third is Steals, here we want a number greater than 33%. However, you will want a chip stack to match here. My total steal % is 21.7 full ring, and 14.3 short handed. Along with Aggression, I need to work on that steal material (helps to have potentially steal worthy hands).

Next, am I Check Raising enough? The optimal is 8% to 10%. Mine is 2% on full ring, na short handed. Should increase to 4% - 5%, but more important, depends on your opponent. Here is where reliance on HUDs is not opportune, but watching your opponent for his actions of the moment is the way to go.

Now, for the more statistical indepth study, requires changing your Overall Report Drop Down box, applying various filters, and paying attention to your bb/100 number.

My current Steal Success Rate is 50% (however, the filter only shows six hands). Of the 6 hands, 4 won, 2 lost (the bad beat). The win rate is 67%. My Blind Defend Stats show no negative numbers, win rate of 40%. Using the Heads Up Filter on the flop, showing win rate of 52.6% (out of a total win rate of 11.3%). 38 hands showing, 4 folded to small blind call, 14 lost, and 20 won. My Heads up on Flop, no Pre Flop Raise is pretty dismal, will need to take a look at these hands, win rate 35.3%, bb/100 first time negative. My multiway pots bb/100 is positive. Win rate is 32.4% general, and 27.7% if I did not make the pre-flop raise.

Pocket Pairs Study: VPIP should be 85% to 90% especially for 88 to AA. My VPIP is 100% down to 66. My PFR is 100% down to 99, 0 for 88 and below. Won Hand % is 66.7% on up for 88 and higher (except for QQ which is 25%).

Suited Connectors Study: Look for minus bb/100. These cards play best in multi-way and steal, late position 3 bets. Overall win rate, 27.3%. All suiteds have negative bb/100 except 87s and 76s, QJs, win rate 20%, only won one hand, calling raise in cutoff. JTs, won one, lost one, both in cut off. 10-9s, 50% win rate. 98s is 0% wins. 87s 75%, and 76s is 50%. The others shouldn't even be in there.

Unsuited Connectors Study: the only positive bb/100 were 10-9o and 98o. Tend to win a lot with 98o, usually played from late position or blinds. 10-9o only played from Cutoff, twice, and won one hand. Only other hand called with is QJo, and that didn't work out. The did cold call filter produced only one hand, the 98o, called on the button, flopped 2 pair against JJ and 86o.

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This is what I purchased the program for, and it is proving useful. My strategy will need to change, not only to improve the numbers (which should be fairly easy counting only 19 tourneys), but to strengthen my play and win rate. The Tournament Strategy article coming up will definitely take these statistics into account.

Good Luck on the Felt.

Analyzing Your Own Play, BIG Part of Studying the Game

I woke up rather late today, was going to play some live poker, but may save that for later next week or next weekend. Was THEN going to hop on and play some more tourneys, but read DeathByLight's 50 to 5k Journey latest post. I have been working on my offline Poker Study, however, decided to delve into Holdem Manager, and see what I could find. This took about 6 hours of study, but well worth the effort (since I have so much I need to learn about the Program).

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I started by using the Hand Replayer, to look at my own stats. While I have my filter set to Tourneys starting 2/7/2010, my hand count is 5.8k, enough for a decent sample size to produce an accurate display. For more explanation of the stats, please visit Stat Definitions for Holdem Manager.

The Displayed Stats in my pseudo HUD are:

VPIP / Preflop Raise / Steal / 3-Bet
Agg Factor / Flop CB / Fold to Flop CB / Hands

My Current Stats Displayed (up to Date for PokerStars):

Showing win percent of 18%

23 / 12 / 32 / 5.8
2.2 / 82 / 46 / 5,8k

So my first analysis revolved around understanding the stats, and how they affect my game.

VPIP or VP$IP Voluntarily put money into the pot. Folding Big Blind doesn't count. This is a BIG one that many using HUDS rely on.

My current VPIP is 23. According to the chart, this is a good VPIP, with positive 3.72 win rate.

PFR Pre Flop Raise

My current PreFlop raise shows 12. Overall, not generally profitable. Ways to increase, 3 betting limpers, 3 betting raisers from late position when they are trying to steal the blinds. I need to raise PFR to about 15.

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I am now switching to leak buster stats (filtered for the last 19 tourneys, which are the beginning of this challenge). The Drop Down Menu in Holdem Manager Reports is Leak Buster - Overall.

VPIP is 24.3 (still good, see above).

PFR is 8.3, raise to 15% (as described above).

AGG (Aggression PostFlop) 1.52, Ideally, should be around 3.0. My first changes should be considering whether to raise or fold. Last thought should be whether to call. Also, a low factor in this level indicates calling to much. This is WHY I post my stats from the tourneys. A professional should play between 19% and 24% of hands seen (Blinds don't count). That is 19 to 24 hands out of 100. Anything above, and you need to search for some leaky behavior.

AGG% (Aggression% Postflop) 17.6 Ideally should be around 33%. Lower factor here not same as lower factor for AGG. Easiest ways to increase Post Flop AGG% are make more river value bets, fire more double and triple barrels, reraise other players when they habitually CBet the flop etc.

WTSD% (Went to Showdown): wo, this is bad. 51.4. Anything over 28 indicates either don’t play aggressive enough or call too often or both. This will generally also reflect in a low W$SD score. Best is between 24 and 26.

W$SD%: the more you win at showdown the higher your winrate. Mine is 48.9, which is just above the min of 48. Ideally, should be 52 on up.

WWSF%: The won when saw flop stat is more of a product of good solid, select, aggressive preflop and postflop play. It is a good stat to look at to see if your game needs some work. Too low and you are likely playing too many hands preflop and playing too passively postflop. Mine is 36, ideally should be 43 to 45.

3Bet %: A relatively high 3Bet% preflop is obviously a key stat for winning players. Mine is 3.2. Ideally, should be 5.2 to 6.2. Ways to improve - 3betting a late position raiser with basically any 2 reasonable cards when you first join a table. Then, tighten up a little bit but still raise with some speculative hands. By the time you pick up a big hand you ideally would have 3bet your opponents a few times and at that point you are more likely to get it all-in preflop. (Basically, more raising or folding, not just limping).

4Bet Range: If you do this too infrequently it is too easy to put you on a very tight range and fold just about all hands you are ahead of. You definitely want this to be above 1.25% and probably higher. Mine is 1.4, which is actually good. Actually, I prefer to 4 bet with really good hands (JJ and up). Especially when the blinds are bigger, I'm indicating a pot committed attack, and it definitely causes some folds).

Call 3Bet%: Of course, this is affected by positional play. However, I stand at 83.3, which is WAY over the limit. 23 to 29 is the optimal range, this shows how big of a mistake it is to call too frequently to 3bets – obviously these results would be even worse when calling out of position. Lower this number be 4betting or folding a lot more often than I currently do.

Fold to Flop Raise: Mine is 20. Optimal is above 35%. Don't be afraid to fold on flop to draw heavy raises, or that big Check Raise (I really need to work on that one).

Flop CBet%: Mine is 70% (a bit high on the Steal Meter). However, this is the optimal range to be in. (Generally, a positional play).

Turn CBet%: the study of being too aggressive. Not necessary to constantly double barrel your play. Mine indicates na, so not sure what to make of that.

Fold to Flop CBet%: On general be very aware of the opponents flop tendencies when he is PFR. How often does he CBet? How often does he fold to a bet or raise? How often does he fire a second bet on the Turn? Mine is 29.4%, which is a fairly decent range. And the study of your opponents is very key to this game.

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So, the moral being to tighten up my play a tad (which I already knew), and think more along the lines of raise or fold, not just call. Now, I do work off of a specific strategy, and some of the MTT strategy taught at the FTP Academy is incongruous with these goals. Though I haven't typed up my Low Buyin Multi Table Tournament Strategy yet, I see I will need to tweak it from the analysis I have done thus far.

You Gotta - Know When to Hold em, Know When to Fold em, Know When to Walk Away, Know When to Run

Just a moment note here: You are probably wondering, is there any Poker Playing on this Poker Blog? Yes. But there is more to Online Poker than the Bankroll and the Charts. More than the NAPT Venetian coming up, more than High Stakes Poker.


So this post covers the More Than Challenge, more important than Bankroll Management, the Most Important Strategy You will need to play Online Right. Besides my previous article on the non-automated importance of playing online, the knowledge of self and discipline will save your bankroll in the long run, and build the profit you are looking for.

Obviously, Tilt and Bankroll Management go a long way. There are days you are angry. There are times when you are tired. There are things you need to do, schedules to keep, routines to set in place, and outside life that needs addressing. If you are not attending to these things, or paying attention to your current stress level, then you are NOT playing your A game. And A games get the results. (P.S. - this is REALLY important for you multi-tablers).

Everyone and their dog would probably want to quit the day job and become a full time pro. The true test of a pro is to build something (hence my challenge to build $5 into a considerable income - much less than the recommended deposit minimum $50). Not only does this teach me the nuances of the game, multiple settings and personalities, different MTT scenarios, etc., but it also teaches discipline. Chris Ferguson took 9 months to build $0 to $100, and 9 more months to take it to $10k (and he probably played a LOT MORE than I do). So my goals are data based points of $$$, not time.

No matter what level of player, we can all use improvement. Studying chip leaks, weaknesses in play, etc can be a real help (this is what I really want Holdem Manager for). Learning better positional play, strong and implied odds starting hands, watching my stats for too loose play, studying scenarios for pot and implied odds, studying opponents (so recognize a blind steal when see one), etc. are good learns for the novice and the 2 year online player. Not to mention how this helps your live game play.

There are times not to play, and times to go into overdrive. Recognizing these are very important. Don't play to make up that all in stack loss from the bad beat in Rush Poker. If you are tired, or sick, don't play online (and don't play to escape, especially if drinking). If you feel your edge dropping, going in with hands you KNEW you shouldn't, take a break. A break can be 20 minutes, half a day, a couple days, or a week. The poker will still be there waiting for you. If poker dominates your life (are you still playing in your PJs, no shower for a week, etc?), then its time to step back and set some basic routines for yourself OFFLINE.

Those playing well above my bankroll, feel free to comment.

Multi Tabling - More Profit? or Defeats the Purpose?

My low limit MTT multi table player, is down $7. Out of the last 200 tourneys, has made final table 8 times. At .10 cents a tourney, that is $20. Not sure if this player wants to move up, but spending more than you make is disastrous on the bankroll. This player has not changed stakes, but $20 minus $7 (not counting the tourneys he played after making money) equivocates to at least $13 profit (he actually made $18). At this stage, one should move up to where variance is a little less (.25 cent tourneys with fewer players).

Multi tabling is not always the answer to more cash flow. Phil Gordon recommends beginners stick to one table, and frowns on folks going for 16 tables. Now, many of these players are relying on HUDs to help, but HUDs are unreliable (as in, someone had a tilt streak and is over it, someone has just gone on tilt, someone always continues with a min bet on flop, whether monster or nothing, etc., renders the HUDs useless). Basic strategy taught at the Full Tilt Academy not only covers starting hands, but also position plays and opponent reads. C-betting is an art not learned from ABC poker, but by knowing your opponent.

Its because of these lessons, and I never had used HUDs, that I am fairly successful at Rush Poker (its only the Bad Beat that gets me in there, and HUDs don't protect against bad beats). One player running a blog doesn't know what to do without running Poker Edge, a centralized database that is verboten on many sites. They need to know pot odds, etc, without actually gaining the experience from playing.

Its that experience that distinguishes Professional Playing from Wannabe. In an earlier post, I was labeled a Calling Station (LAG). These stats are definitely OFF (except for the part that stated I can't be bluffed, HaHa). While I might start with 2 tables, possibly work up to three, I don't see the need to mass Multi Table, watched the results from Boku87, and it definitely wasn't pretty.

Depending on Computer Programs to pick out Fish Tables, Player Stats, Forbidden Bots, etc, really won't help you be the winning Poker Player you want to be. Suppose you make it to the WSOP, what is going to help you there? You need to play the player as much as you need to play the game, and direct observation, at THAT POINT IN TIME (not everyone plays consistently the same way), will give you the winning edge. Also, experience pumps the edge, and a HUD doesn't give you experience, it gives you STATS of past performance.

A word on Mult Tabling tournaments: you miss out on PRIME OPPORTUNITIES to play that winning Edge. You are not observing your opponents (our hero from the first paragraph went all in first hand with J9 off, definite improvement needed there). You are pretty much stuck with ABC poker, and can't sniff with those big stacks and a call with 87 suited. Positional play, complex betting, bluffing, all become a lost art when you have 12 tables open, and are either relying on statistical info, or simply trying to minimize your variance. Many of the Pros on Full Tilt, UB, and Stars, only play a few tables at the most (these are the seasoned veterans, that also play live games).

Don't fall into a trap on relying on software for your game, because this does not a winning player make. Try not to lose your total bankroll multi tabling, easily done even if you are playing in your bankroll range. Learn the game, learn the reads, lose the HUDs. My take on conquering my challenge.

P.S., my stats for PokerStars, with about 110 games played (all low level), profit is over $80, but I cashed that out for this challenge. And that's just the tourneys :-)



Note: The last 25 or so tourney's were not part of the profits, because they were experiments prior to the challenge, but after the cash out.