Friday, February 26, 2010

Analyzing Your Own Play, BIG Part of Studying the Game

I woke up rather late today, was going to play some live poker, but may save that for later next week or next weekend. Was THEN going to hop on and play some more tourneys, but read DeathByLight's 50 to 5k Journey latest post. I have been working on my offline Poker Study, however, decided to delve into Holdem Manager, and see what I could find. This took about 6 hours of study, but well worth the effort (since I have so much I need to learn about the Program).

I started by using the Hand Replayer, to look at my own stats. While I have my filter set to Tourneys starting 2/7/2010, my hand count is 5.8k, enough for a decent sample size to produce an accurate display. For more explanation of the stats, please visit Stat Definitions for Holdem Manager.

The Displayed Stats in my pseudo HUD are:

VPIP / Preflop Raise / Steal / 3-Bet
Agg Factor / Flop CB / Fold to Flop CB / Hands

My Current Stats Displayed (up to Date for PokerStars):

Showing win percent of 18%

23 / 12 / 32 / 5.8
2.2 / 82 / 46 / 5,8k

So my first analysis revolved around understanding the stats, and how they affect my game.

VPIP or VP$IP Voluntarily put money into the pot. Folding Big Blind doesn't count. This is a BIG one that many using HUDS rely on.

My current VPIP is 23. According to the chart, this is a good VPIP, with positive 3.72 win rate.

PFR Pre Flop Raise

My current PreFlop raise shows 12. Overall, not generally profitable. Ways to increase, 3 betting limpers, 3 betting raisers from late position when they are trying to steal the blinds. I need to raise PFR to about 15.

I am now switching to leak buster stats (filtered for the last 19 tourneys, which are the beginning of this challenge). The Drop Down Menu in Holdem Manager Reports is Leak Buster - Overall.

VPIP is 24.3 (still good, see above).

PFR is 8.3, raise to 15% (as described above).

AGG (Aggression PostFlop) 1.52, Ideally, should be around 3.0. My first changes should be considering whether to raise or fold. Last thought should be whether to call. Also, a low factor in this level indicates calling to much. This is WHY I post my stats from the tourneys. A professional should play between 19% and 24% of hands seen (Blinds don't count). That is 19 to 24 hands out of 100. Anything above, and you need to search for some leaky behavior.

AGG% (Aggression% Postflop) 17.6 Ideally should be around 33%. Lower factor here not same as lower factor for AGG. Easiest ways to increase Post Flop AGG% are make more river value bets, fire more double and triple barrels, reraise other players when they habitually CBet the flop etc.

WTSD% (Went to Showdown): wo, this is bad. 51.4. Anything over 28 indicates either don’t play aggressive enough or call too often or both. This will generally also reflect in a low W$SD score. Best is between 24 and 26.

W$SD%: the more you win at showdown the higher your winrate. Mine is 48.9, which is just above the min of 48. Ideally, should be 52 on up.

WWSF%: The won when saw flop stat is more of a product of good solid, select, aggressive preflop and postflop play. It is a good stat to look at to see if your game needs some work. Too low and you are likely playing too many hands preflop and playing too passively postflop. Mine is 36, ideally should be 43 to 45.

3Bet %: A relatively high 3Bet% preflop is obviously a key stat for winning players. Mine is 3.2. Ideally, should be 5.2 to 6.2. Ways to improve - 3betting a late position raiser with basically any 2 reasonable cards when you first join a table. Then, tighten up a little bit but still raise with some speculative hands. By the time you pick up a big hand you ideally would have 3bet your opponents a few times and at that point you are more likely to get it all-in preflop. (Basically, more raising or folding, not just limping).

4Bet Range: If you do this too infrequently it is too easy to put you on a very tight range and fold just about all hands you are ahead of. You definitely want this to be above 1.25% and probably higher. Mine is 1.4, which is actually good. Actually, I prefer to 4 bet with really good hands (JJ and up). Especially when the blinds are bigger, I'm indicating a pot committed attack, and it definitely causes some folds).

Call 3Bet%: Of course, this is affected by positional play. However, I stand at 83.3, which is WAY over the limit. 23 to 29 is the optimal range, this shows how big of a mistake it is to call too frequently to 3bets – obviously these results would be even worse when calling out of position. Lower this number be 4betting or folding a lot more often than I currently do.

Fold to Flop Raise: Mine is 20. Optimal is above 35%. Don't be afraid to fold on flop to draw heavy raises, or that big Check Raise (I really need to work on that one).

Flop CBet%: Mine is 70% (a bit high on the Steal Meter). However, this is the optimal range to be in. (Generally, a positional play).

Turn CBet%: the study of being too aggressive. Not necessary to constantly double barrel your play. Mine indicates na, so not sure what to make of that.

Fold to Flop CBet%: On general be very aware of the opponents flop tendencies when he is PFR. How often does he CBet? How often does he fold to a bet or raise? How often does he fire a second bet on the Turn? Mine is 29.4%, which is a fairly decent range. And the study of your opponents is very key to this game.

So, the moral being to tighten up my play a tad (which I already knew), and think more along the lines of raise or fold, not just call. Now, I do work off of a specific strategy, and some of the MTT strategy taught at the FTP Academy is incongruous with these goals. Though I haven't typed up my Low Buyin Multi Table Tournament Strategy yet, I see I will need to tweak it from the analysis I have done thus far.


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